luni, 2 noiembrie 2009

Debt deflation

O prezentare excelenta a unui subiect care ma pasioneaza - deflatia.

Debt Deflation October 2009

7 comentarii:

AristotelCostel spunea...

Sunt importante şi precizările lui Mike Shedlock.

You should not be afraid of deflation.

You should be afraid of policies attempting to fight it.

Deflation (rather price deflation) is actually the natural state of affairs. As productivity increases, more goods and services are produced relative to the population and prices would therefore be expected to drop.

It is the Fed, along with misguided Keynesian and Monetarist economists who think falling prices are a bad thing. Who amongst us does like falling prices (except of course on things we own like houses, but even then who is not sick of higher property taxes that result)?

The reality is inflation benefits those with first access to money. Guess who that is? The answer is easy: banks, government, and the already wealthy. Inflation is actually a tax on the middle class and the poor who get access to money last. During the housing bubble, by the time the poor could get access to to money easily, it was far too late to buy.

Given that inflation benefits those with first access to money, any targeted inflation at all is morally wrong.

Note that Congress has passed 300+ affordable housing measures over the years and all of them failed. The irony now is Congress has simultaneously passed measures hoping to prop up the price of homes while seeking still additional money to create affordable housing.

Home prices need to fall (and will fall) to levels of affordability based on wages and wage growth regardless of what the Fed does. Thus, efforts to prop up prices are triply stupid: They are costly; They they will not work (prices will fall to where they are headed anyway); and they will delay a recovery.

Deflation is only bad in the context of the short-term pain it will involve. Moreover, it is important to remember that the pain of deflation is relative to the inflation party that preceded it. That party must be paid for either in terms of time or price.

Mihai Marcu spunea...

nu ne teama de deflatie, doar de efectele ei :).

in sistemul de crestere economica de pana acum, pe datorie, nu e loc de deflatie...sa ne uitam la romania - la inflatie redusa de 4.9% si un curs relativ stabil SI scadere economica, deja o parte din firme ajung relativ rapid in insolvabilitate. trebuie inlocuit modelul de crestere cu altceva, iar reducerea in stilurile de viata s-ar putea sa nu fie usor de suportat.

AristotelCostel spunea...

The reality is inflation benefits those with first access to money.

Ce inflaţie a avut România până la integrare? Cine a avut acces la bani şi ce s-a întâmplat cu... băncile româneşti?
Baza economiei româneşti e securistul.
Merge importul... merge şi... economia. :)

MIA spunea...

>Baza economiei româneşti e securistul

Sau - si mai precis : oportunistul.

Adica individul policalificat care poate fi ajent imobiliar daca e boom pe piata imobilelor, importator de chiloti de lux si TV-uri chinezesti, termopanist profi etc. :)

AristotelCostel spunea...

Mia... par demodat cu sintagma "cosorul lui Moceanu", da' oportuniştii nu-s decât nişte paraziţi norocoşi.

Politica monetară din România nu a fost transmisă telegrafic din... divinitate... nişte bă'eţi au făcut jocurile... securiştii. :)

Inflaţia anuală? 200% :)
În imobiliare cu cât au crescut preţurile în 5 ani? 1000%
Caritas? Bifat
FNI? Bifat

MIA spunea...

Aristotel ... cred ca le supraestimezi capacitatea respectivilor securisti.

Fireste - experienta fiecaruia e limitata, desi ea ne influenteaza deci cele ce le spun acuma reprezinta un punct de vedere strict personal : cred ca mai bine de jumate din fostii securisti au capotat ( mental sa zicem asa dar chiar si financiar si economic ) in citeva luni dupa ce sistemul care ii sustinea si pe care il sustineau s-a prabusit. In mare cred ca si dintre fostii securisti cei care au avut adaptabilitatea si inteligenta reala necesara au reprezentat o mica minoritate ... care s-a combinat cu micile minoritati de smecheri si baieti isteti de prin alte domenii si a rezultat clica oportunista de la putere.

alex@formidabilii.org spunea...

Odata in viata, sunt de acord cu Aristotel...